The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(® )(LEI) for India declined 1.2 percent in November. The index stands at 174.6 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in October and a 0.9 percent decline in September. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in November.
Said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "Despite somewhat stabilizing current conditions, the LEI's persistent weakness suggests the economy will not improve much in 2014. The volatility in the LEI's six-month growth, which has been negative since the first quarter of 2013, suggests that the economy will remain vulnerable, particularly to changes in global conditions."
Said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. "The decline in the LEI reinforces the view that the imminent tapering of the monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve could call an end to the short breathing period the Indian economy is currently enjoying, and that more policy intervention may be needed in order to avoid larger negative effects on the economy. "
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(®) (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.9 percent in November to 201.4 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent decline in October and a 2.4 percent decline in September. Three of the four components contributed positively to the index in November.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.