Continued boxboard demand growth and more aggressively expanding Chinese Boxboard capacities will impact the global market over the next 5 years
As the largest boxboard consumer in Asia, China accounts for more than 50% of total boxboard consumption. China's demand for boxboard is expected to grow at rates between 4 and 5% until 2018. Specifically, virgin cartonboard demand will experience relatively steady growth in the next four years, while growth in recycled boxboard will continue to decelerate during the entire forecast period. Capacity growth, on the other hand, peaked at 17% last year, and will continue to outpace demand until at least 2015. Following rapid increase in capacity, the nation is also poised for strong export growth, with virgin cartonboard export registering more than 10% growth over 2014-2018. These findings and related analyses were released today in a new study by RISI, the leading information provider for the global forest product industry.
"More than half of major end use sectors analyzed in our report will be subject to slower growth through the forecast period. The gap between annual demand and supply will widen to more than 6 million tonnes per year starting in 2015, which will put more pressure on Chinese producers to export," said Han Yao, lead author of the study and Asian Paper Packaging Economist at RISI.
"Thus, China is expected to have a significant impact on the global boxboard market in the medium term, and the virgin cartonboard trade flow in particular. China's total virgin cartonboard supply will also outpace North America's total this year. As a result, domestic recycled boxboard producers will face even tougher market competition and more closures," Yao continued.
Providing a detailed outlook to 2018, the China Boxboard Study: The Nation's Rise on the Global Stage analyzes the Chinese boxboard market landscape and identifies key participants and major driving forces of sub-grade demand. The study assesses the nation's impact on global trade while examining strategies for business growth in China and other global export markets where Chinese exports have emerged and increased.
Analyses included in China Boxboard Study: The Nation's Rise on the Global Stage:
China boxboard demand, supply and trade dynamics from 2006-2018
Chinese exports and imports by sub-grade and sourcing/destination country
Exclusive analysis of major players and market structure by major sub-grade
Demand composition and a bottom-up forecast focused on top 15 end-use markets
Comparative cost analyses of European-made FBB, Chinese-made ivoryboard and North American-made folding cartonboard
