Strong Increases in Recent Months
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in August. The index now stands at 121.29, up from 120.62 (an upward revision) in July. This represents a 6.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.
"The strong increase in the Employment Trends Index in recent months signals robust job growth through the fall," said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. "The disappointing employment numbers for August seem to be a one-month deviation from a stronger trend."
August's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from seven of its eight components. In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Industrial Production, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Number of Temporary Employees, Job Openings, and Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get."
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
Job Openings (BLS)**
Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**
