The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 0.4 percent in September. The index now stands at 120.6 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent decline in August and a 2.3 percent increase in July. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in September.
"The LEI for Brazil experienced yet another decrease – it's eighth in the past nine months," said Paulo Picchetti, economist at FGV/IBRE. "The recent declines in the LEI reflect largely the ongoing uncertainties brought on by the general elections, as well as continued weakness in domestic demand. However, the rate of decline in the LEI has moderated recently, signaling a possible stabilization following the recent deterioration in the Brazilian economy."
"The LEI for Brazil declined again in September, despite consumer expectations offsetting negative contributions from the financial and manufacturing indicators. However, while the weaknesses in the index remain widespread, its six-month decline seems to be stabilizing," said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. "And, although it is too early to conclude the downward trend has ended, it does suggest the softness in current economic conditions may begin to moderate soon."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in September to 127.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in August and no change in July. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in September.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.