The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 0.4 percent in August. The index now stands at 121.5 (2004 = 100), following a 2.0 percent increase in July and a 1.6 percent decline in June. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in August.
"The fall in economic activity during the first two quarters of the year is consistent with the prolonged declines in the TCB/FGV LEI and TCB/FGV CEI since 2013," said Paulo Picchetti, economist at FGV/IBRE. "Expectations remain mixed ahead of the upcoming elections, and it is still too soon to say if economic growth will improve in the second half of 2014, but the LEI suggests the economy will likely continue to struggle in the near term."
"The TCB/FGV Brazil LEI has declined in seven of the first eight months of this year and its six-month change remains in negative territory with widespread weaknesses among the leading indicators," said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. "The more pessimistic outlook of consumers and expectations in services offset improved expectations for manufacturing and stock markets in August."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in August at 127.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in July and a 0.6 percent decline in June. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.