The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.9 percent in September to 302.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in August and a 1.3 percent increase in July. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in September.
"The six-month growth rate of the Leading Economic Index has eased steadily throughout the third quarter, indicating increased downside risks to economic growth in the months ahead," said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. "While activity in the property sector stabilized a bit, sharp weakening in demand for both bank credit and real estate point to sluggish private investment in the last quarter of 2014. Recent developments, therefore, confirm our long-term view of a soft fall of the economy as we reported earlier this week."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.5 percent to 266.1 (2004 = 100), following no change in August and a 1.1 percent increase in July. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in September.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
