The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), fell 1.5 percent in August. The index now stands at 87.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.7 percent decline in July and a 0.3 percent decline in June. The terms of trade index, the exports volume index, stock prices, the services sector survey: expectations index, the manufacturing survey´s expectations index, the consumers survey: expectations index, and the swap rate (inverted) all contributed negatively to the index in August.
"The Brazil Leading Economic Index decreased sharply in August for the tenth consecutive month. Declining business and consumer expectations, trade and exports, plus stock market volatility all contributed to the LEI's decline," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "The continued deterioration of the LEI, coupled with the uncertainties related to the fiscal adjustment, suggests Brazil will remain mired in a recession for the rest of 2015."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent to 102.7 (2010 = 100) in August, following no change in July and a 0.2 percent decline in June. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.