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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Increased Slightly in December

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(®)( )(LEI) for India increased 0.1 percent in December. The index stands at 175.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent decline in November and a 1.5 percent increase in October. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in December.

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Said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board: "The small gain in the LEI in December was mainly driven by monetary policy and financial indicators, while exports fell in the last quarter. The persistent weakness of the LEI in the second half of 2013, coupled with stubbornly high inflation, suggests that India's economy will continue to face downside risks in 2014."

Said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board: "We expect, at best, a moderate improvement from last year's disappointing GDP performance. India still has the potential to return to a 5 to 6 percent annual rate of growth provided reforms in labor markets and tax regimes, which are driving productivity, get accelerated. The Conference Board's latest productivity estimates, published earlier this week, project labor productivity growth in India at a meager 2.7 percent for 2014."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(®)( )(CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in November to 197.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent decline in November and a 1.2 percent decline in October. Only one of the four components contributed positively to the index in December.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

www.conference-board.org

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