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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Fell Slightly in June

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 0.2 percent in June. The index now stands at 121.1 (2004 = 100), following a 1.8 percent decline in May and a 0.4 percent decline in April. Four of the eight components contributed positively to the index in June.

"The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Brazil deteriorated further in June, with unfavorable expectations continuing to play a large role in the LEI's lackluster performance," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "However, current economic conditions — as measured by the CEI — have remained relatively stable recently, with resilient labor markets offsetting the weakness of output. Moreover, the decline in the LEI during the first half of 2014 has not yet been as steep as during previous economic downturns."

Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, added: "The sixth consecutive decline in the LEI for Brazil points to weak economic conditions continuing in the second half of the year. Even though financial indicators improved in June, the deterioration in the overall performance of the LEI suggests that the current below-trend growth will continue through the end of 2014."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, declined 0.1 percent in June at 128.2 (2004 = 100), following no change in May and a 0.1 percent decrease in April. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in June.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

www.conference-board.org

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