BNY Mellon Investment Boutique Expects Drag from Slowing China to Be Overcome
Emerging markets are likely to benefit later in the year from stronger growth in the United States and Europe despite the current cloud cast by slowing economic growth in China and geopolitical risks elsewhere, according to the April Global Macro Views report from Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, the Boston-based fixed income manager for BNY Mellon.
"In the U.S., we are beginning to see tentative signs of a pickup in economic data following a harsh winter," said Thomas D. Higgins, chief economist and chief global strategist for Standish. "In the euro zone, we have become slightly more optimistic given declining sovereign spreads in peripheral Europe and the possible freeing up of bank capital later this year after the European Central Bank's asset quality review."
Overall, Standish retained its forecast for global Gross Domestic Growth (GDP) at 3.5 percent for 2014 and 3.7 percent for 2015.
In the U.S., Standish credited a thaw from harsh winter weather in March to improvements in employment, retail sales and industrial production. Standish lowered its forecast for 2014 first quarter growth to 1.5 percent from 2.0 percent due to a larger-than-expected trade gap in February.
However, Higgins added, "We still expect growth to rebound to between 2.5 percent and 3.0 percent for the remainder of the year."
In the euro zone, Standish forecasts GDP growth at 1.2 percent for 2014 and 1.0 percent for 2015. A major concern in the region is the trend toward disinflation, and monetary policy needs to be eased, the report said. In the United Kingdom, Standish is expecting GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2014 and 2.5 percent in 2015.
Regarding China, Standish said retail sales, industrial production and exports have been disappointing. GDP growth is expected to slow from 7.2 percent in 2014 to 7.0 percent in 2015, Standish said.
In other regions, GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 3.2 percent in Latin America, 2.6 percent in Eastern Europe, 0.5 percent in Russia, 2.3 percent in South Africa, and 1.2 percent in Japan.