The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), declined 2.0 percent in March. The index now stands at 90.4 (2010 = 100), following a 1.4 percent decline in February and a 1.7 percent decline in January. The services, manufacturing, and consumer expectations indexes continued to contribute negatively to the index in March.
"The Leading Index for Brazil declined in March for a fifth consecutive month, prompted by declining business expectations and weak consumer confidence," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "The persistent declines in the LEI suggest that economic conditions will deteriorate even further. In addition, the turbulent political environment is doing little to help restore business confidence."
"The six-month growth rate of the Leading Economic Index for Brazil continued to fall deeper into contractionary territory in March with broad based weakness among its components," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "Although the LEI for Brazil appeared to be stabilizing somewhat at the end of 2014, the continued lack of business and consumer confidence is taking a toll on the economic outlook for 2015."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent to 104.7 (2010 = 100) in March, following a 0.4 percent decline in February and a 0.1 percent increase in January. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in March.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
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